Year of Firefox: Right On Schedule

I wrote back in February:

I predict that Firefox browser marketshare will be near 20% by end of year 2004.  It's that good and getting better.

And browser marketshare numbers so far:

2004 IE 6 IE 5 O 7 Moz NN 3 NN 4 NN 7
September 68.3% 6.5% 2.5% 17.7% 0.2% 0.2% 1.3%
August 70.3% 7.0% 2.3% 15.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.4%
July 71.0% 7.7% 2.3% 13.8% 0.3% 0.3% 1.4%
June 72.4% 8.3% 2.3% 11.8% 0.3% 0.3% 1.4%
May 72.6% 9.2% 2.2% 11.0% 0.3% 0.3% 1.4%
April 72.4% 10.1% 2.1% 10.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.4%
March 72.1% 10.7% 2.1% 9.6% 0.4% 0.4% 1.4%
February 71.5% 11.5% 2.2% 9.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.5%
January 71.3% 12.8% 2.1% 8.2% 0.4% 0.5% 1.5%

Actual marketshare of Firefox is less than the 17.7% because this statistic does not distinguish between Mozilla and Firefox.  My guestimate for actual Firefox marketshare is 12~14%.

So it looks like my prediction is still on track.

Update:

Apparently News.com is seeing similar numbers:

Among CNET News.com readers, site visitors with the Firefox and Mozilla browsers jumped to 18 percent for the first two weeks of September, up from 8 percent in January.

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