Merry Christmas

Not much to be merry about but it’s the tradition so let’s be merry anyway. I tend to like end of the year because I tend to get moody and reflective which usually leads to creative thoughts.


I am refreshing my understanding of statistics. While it’s not my favorite part of math, I need to firm up what I know for an idea I am tinkering with. I spent most of last week revisiting NLP (natural language parsing) technology and business. In summary, nothing revolutionary technology-wise but blooming business intelligence application has fertilized the market wide and far. It’s still an imperfect technology but, thankfully, my interest is well within practical range.


Since my last post, base level moved up a level from DOW 8000 to DOW 8400 and less predictable (to me, at least). So I’ll be watching more and trading less except when extremes are reached.


I am hoping to have some news to share in January.

Looking for the Bottom

Despite the long (well, sure felt long) decline and bounces, I am still all cash. Throughout the rollercoaster ride, there were many luring moment but none felt true because I don’t think it’s the bottom when people are still joking and ranting about the market. To me, it’s bottom when no one wants to talk about the market.

When? I think the start of the last leg of the journey is about to start. It’s kind of funny that, while people know what’s happening now is a global crisis, many don’t fully realize what that really means. Imagine what would happen when practically every aspect of world economy shrinks by 1/3. That’s what’s happening now in the stock markets which is, in essence, the mirror reflection of the business world.

The bottom will be where the reflection meets reality because people won’t be crying wolf anymore when it’s sitting right in front of them, drooling.